Dear gas, Zorzoli: “Roof at the price of the Russian one? Useless. Acting on speculation at the Ttf in Amsterdam”. Paganetto: “The EU countries should make a buying group”

“I think it will come from the European summit an aspirinwhich is fine for the cold but it’s not enough if you have the bronchopneumonia. What is really needed is a market intervention Ttf of Amsterdam: when there is an excess of le rise bargaining of gas futures they should be suspended, as is the case for securities on all stock exchanges. But it will not be done why Holland earns from this situation “. John the Baptist Zorzolipresident ofItalian Association of Energy Economists, former nuclearist converted to renewables, he is convinced that the solution to crisis which is overwhelming European industry and families can only come from the EU. But at the same time it definitely is pessimist on the outcome of the extraordinary meeting of energy ministers scheduled for Friday. More cautious Luigi Paganettoprofessor emeritus at the University of Tor Vergata where he leads the Economics Foundation and among the rest former president of Enea and vice president of CDP, who “hopes” for an agreement between the 27 on the proposed common purchases. The two experts agree on one thing: the ceiling on the price of Russian gaswhich many refer to as a panacea, would not solve the problem.

“We need a roof for the elevations on the Ttf. But Holland will oppose “ – “The whole EU has greatly reduced purchases of Russian gas. Setting a cap just for that vendor would then mean unleashing one reaction potentially dangerous without affecting the costs borne by businesses and families, because for the quantities imported from Algeria and other suppliers, prices would remain unchanged ”, argues Zorzoli. “The only possibility, as I have argued for some time, is to put a roof to the trades on the Amsterdam market on which those prices are formed. The Ttf it is a speculative and not very liquid market, with trading for only 1-2 billion per day and few operators, and sets the price for all gas treated at EU level. We should provide for an upward limit beyond which trading stops ”.

Why isn’t it done? “He doesn’t want it Holland, which produces and exports gas and makes money from it. While the balances of payments of Italy, France and Germany go negative, which in turn contributes to the depreciation of the euro against the dollar: a vicious circle ”. Which is already having an outcome the arrest of the former energy-intensive companies around Europea, with very heavy social consequences not to mention the impact on competitiveness of the Old Continent. “If we intervened on the Ttf, the effect on prices would be seen quickly and at that point the cost of aid for the categories most affected by the increases would fall”, continues the engineer. “It would be easier to launch a European support plan that would allow even the most indebted countries to intervene”.

“The EU countries must assert their power as buyers” – Paganetto agrees in the rejection of the price cap: “It could unleash a retaliation“, As indeed the same explicitly admits Commission in the non-paper that will end up on the table of ministers. But even acting on the Ttf – “certainly it is a tight market with few buyers who end up making the price for everyone” – does not seem to him decisive. So what to do? Moscow, he notes, continues to pull the rope – on Friday it announced the “indefinite” stop of supplies Nord Stream 1 – but it has every interest in continuing to sell gas to the EU, albeit in much smaller quantities than before the war. “The proposal that provides for the creation of a sort of”purchasing group ”of gas who negotiate quantities and prices. In this way the EU countries would assert theirs monopoly as buyers, guaranteed by the fact that there are currently no gas pipelines capable of carrying large quantities of Russian methane to other areas. The EU, born with the Czech Republic and Euratom, must return to having a single energy market ”. However, this would mean that large national importers, such asEni, they should agree to buy on the terms set centrally, an outcome that is anything but a foregone conclusion.

“Italy proposes in the EU the sale of energy from renewable sources at controlled prices” – The other proposal that will be examined in Brussels is the so-called decoupling“, That is, the separation between the price of gas and the price of electricity produced from other sources with lower costs. “Making a separate market for renewables would be disastrous. Another thing ”, explains Zorzoli,“ is to field something similar to what is already foreseen in Italy from Bill decree: let the Gse a certain amount of renewable energy which is then resold at low prices. And the market price differential can be used to help distressed sectors and consumers. It would be enough that, given the emergency, what is envisaged as an option was made mandatory. It would be a good proposal to bring to the EU on 9 September ”. The Ministry of Ecological Transition headed by Roberto Cingolani, however, the implementing decree has yet to be written…. “These decisions should be made by someone above the Meek, otherwise I believe they will not be made. Unless after September 25th there is no more appointment “robust“”.

Has the current owner not done enough? “A lot of things have been done, but they are all pieces put there to avoid the worst. Not that previous legislature governments have done much better. Of course at first it looked like the energy problem was marginal. This was not just an Italian mistake: all of Europe has forgotten the weight of geopolitics. THE risks dependence on Russian supplies were well known ”. As for the development of renewable, “Measures have been taken that have not solved the problems. He could have named a commissionerhow the government can do in case of delays on the works of the Pnrr. The proposal was discussed, then it was decided not to proceed “.

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